CESR公布人类灭绝的10种可能！特朗普入围

近日，英国剑桥大学存在风险研究中心(CESR)公布了人类灭绝的10种可能，并对它们的风险等级进行了排序。CESR认为美国总统特朗普也可能引发世界末日，并且认为这种可能性居然超过了行星撞地球、气候变化以及机器人杀手等威胁。一起来看看世界末日究竟会以何种方式到来吧！

Artificial Intelligence

人工智能

Humanity faces an uncertain future as technology learns to think for itself and adapt to its environment.

由于科技开始学习自我思考并适应环境，人类正面临着一个不确定的未来。

Nick Bostrom, an outside adviser to Cambridge University's Study of Existential Risk (CESR), predicts that machines will attain 90 percent of human-level intelligence by 2075.

英国剑桥大学存在风险研究中心(CESR)外聘顾问尼克•博斯特罗姆预言，到2075年机器的智力水平将达到人类的90%。

The threat posed to the human race if they developed beyond our understanding and control has been compared to the development of nuclear weapons.

如果机器的发展超出我们的理解和掌控，那么其对于人类的威胁可以与核武器的诞生相提并论。

CESR believe that artificial intelligence could create a multitude of risks that threaten human existence in the near future, as so place it as a very high priority.

CESR认为，人工智能在不久的将来可能对人类生存构成众多威胁，所以将其列为高优先级的威胁。

Bio-hacking

生物黑客

Superbugs capable of everything from curing diseases to mopping up pollution could one day become reality, through synthetic biology.

从治疗疾病到清除污染，合成生物学有朝一日会让无所不能的超级细菌变成现实。

But experiments with bio-engineering could have unexpected and extremely dangerous results and are being been given a very high priority by CESR.

但是生物工程试验可能带来意想不到且极其危险的后果，而CESR则认为其危险性极高。

As current experiments work with self-replicating micro-organisms, like viruses, there is a high risk that any such material that escaped the lab could cause a global pandemic.

目前，病毒试验等可自我复制微生物试验可能使此类物质从实验室泄露，这会引发全球性疾病，此类情形极有可能发生。

Killer robots

机器人杀手

Fully autonomous weapons, also known as 'killer robots,' are quickly moving from the realm of science fiction toward reality.

全自动武器也被称为“机器人杀手”，它正迅速从科幻小说走向现实世界。

Removing humans from the targeting decision would create a dangerous world, with machines making life-and-death determinations outside of human control.

当机器在做出生死决定时不受人类控制，在决定目标时将人类排除在外，世界将变得非常危险。

And there are greater fears that killer robots could one day turn against their creators, although CESR feels that this threat is currently a low priority.

而更加让人担心的是机器人杀手有一天可能会背叛他们的缔造者，不过，CESR认为目前机器人杀手的风险等级相对较低。

Nuclear war

核战争

There are now more than 15,000 nuclear weapons on this planet, but to plunge Earth into a devastating nuclear winter, all it would take is the detonation of 100.

目前，地球上存在的核武器超过15000枚，但是只需要引爆100枚核武器就可以让地球进入灾难性的核冬天。

While the bombs themselves would cause catastrophic damage, the scientists predicted the ensuing nuclear winter would be just as significant.

虽然核爆炸本身就会造成灾难性的破坏，但科学家预测随之而来的核冬天同样威力十足。

核冬天理论认为：当使用大量的核武器，特别是对城市这样的易燃目标使用核武器，会让大量的烟和煤烟进入地球的大气层，这可能导致非常寒冷的天气。当核爆炸时，巨大的能量将大量的烟尘注入大气。由于核爆炸所产生的烟尘微粒能在高空停留数天乃至一年以上，对太阳的可见光辐射有较强吸收力，而对地面向外的红外光辐射的吸收力较弱，导致高层大气升温，地表温度下降，使地表呈现出如严寒冬天般的景观，称为核冬天。那时地球会被尘埃笼罩，95%的生命会死去。

The CESR rates it as a low to medium risk priority.

CESR将核战争的风险等级列为中低等。

Climate change

气候变化

Concentrations of carbon dioxide, released when fossil fuels are burned, as well as other 'greenhouse gases', have risen at an alarming rate, forming a thick blanket around Earth, trapping excess heat and nudging global temperatures upwards.

化石燃料燃烧释放的二氧化碳以及其他“温室气体”的浓度以惊人的速度增加，厚厚地笼罩在地球周围、吸收多余热量、导致全球气温上升。

Scientists warn of a tipping point - a temperature beyond which the problem can no longer be dialled back.

科学家们提醒，温度超过某个临界点问题将无法挽回。

If we reach this point, a runaway greenhouse fect would cause temperatures to soar to several hundred degrees Celsius, boiling the oceans and making life on Earth impossible.

如果气温一旦达到了这个临界点，那么失控的温室效应将会使气温飙升到几百摄氏度，让海水沸腾，地球上将无法生存。

However the CESR rates climate change as another low to medium risk priority.

不过，CESR也将气候变化的风险等级列为中低等。

　　Asteroid impact

小行星撞击

From time to time Asteroids cross paths with us and, while impacts on the scale of the infamous 6.2-mile (10km) 'dinosaur-destroyer' are rare, an asteroid a fifth the size could spell disaster for civilisation.

虽然小行星时不时就会与地球相交，但是“令恐龙灭绝”的声名狼藉的小行星直径有1万米，这种小行星非常罕见，一颗体积仅为其1/5的小行星就能给人类文明带来一场浩劫。

With energy greater than 10 million Hiroshima bombs, the impact shock would flatten everything within a 186-mile (300km) radius.

小行星撞击的能量比1000万枚投放在广岛的原子弹还要强，带来的冲击将把方圆300公里夷为平地。

However, the CESR rate this as a low risk priority.

然而，CESR认为这种情况的可能性较低。

Reality is an illusion

现实是幻觉

Philosophers have long posed thought experiments to examine the nature the interaction between our internal 'self' and external 'reality', questioning how much we can trust the evidence of our senses.

长期以来，哲学家们一直通过思想实验来检验人的内在“自我”和外在“现实”之间的相互作用的本质，他们对人类在多大程度上可以相信自己的感官提出了疑问。

While still largely the preserve of science fiction, the idea that the world we experience as 'real' is actually just a simulation is still given serious thought by scientists, philosophers, and even businesses.

科学家、哲学家、甚至商界都在认真思考这样一种观点，即人类认为的“真实”世界实际上是虚拟的，不过这种观点基本上仍然停留在科幻小说中。

Whether we will ever be able to determine if this is the case remains a much debated topic, and as such, it is a low area of interest for the CESR.

人类是否能够确定这一观点的真实性仍然是一个备受争议的话题，因此，CESR不太重视这种说法。

Food shortages

粮食短缺

Global food shortages will become three times more likely as a result of climate change, according to one report, and the international community needs to be ready to respond to price shocks to prevent civil unrest.

一份报告称，由于气候变化的原因，世界粮食短缺的可能性将翻三倍。而国际社会需要做好准备应对粮价冲击，以防动荡。

With the world's population set to rise to nine billion by 2050 from 7.3 billion today, food production will need to increase by more than 60 percent and climate-linked market disruptions could lead to civil unrest, the report said.

报告称，到2050年世界人口数量将从现在的73亿增加至90亿，粮食产量的增长因此需要超过60%，而气候问题导致的市场混乱可能引发动荡。

This another high priority area for the CESR.

CESR认为粮食短缺是另一项可能性很高的威胁。

Particle accelerator

粒子加速器

Another improbable possibility raised as a concern to the future existence of the planet is that supercollider experiments could accidentally destroy planet Earth.

另外一种关于地球命运的不太可能的可能性是超级对撞机实验可能意外毁灭地球。

大型强子对撞机一旦启动，将会以近光速的速度投放出质子与离子束，并将让此粒子束彼此撞击。科学家希望这些撞击事件将告诉我们更多有关宇宙是如何起源的以及宇宙由什么组成的内容。对撞机的目的就是要加深人类对宇宙的了解。但是也有专家担心大型强子对撞机会带来世界末日。

Experts at the CESR rate the risk of this happening as very low.

CESR的专家认为这种情况发生的风险极低。

Tyrannical ruler

暴君

Some experts are concerned that inpidual world leaders could be the catalyst to man-made extinction events - perhaps through nuclear conflict or poor management of the fects of climate change.

一些专家担心，个别世界领导人可能成为人为灭绝事件的催化剂——潜在的手段包括核冲突或对气候问题治理不善。

CSER's Julius Weitzdörfer said: 'With Trump, we are moving away from a world in which scientific evidence counts in debates.'

CSER的朱利叶斯表示：“特朗普让我们与一个科学证据在讨论中说了算的世界渐行渐远。”

'That impedes our ability to deal with any kind of threats. It makes our governance worse and increases risk.'

“他妨碍了我们应对各种威胁的能力。让我们的治理变得更糟，让世界更危险。”

The CESR believes that this is a medium risk area.

CESR认为暴君的风险等级为中等。