中国与日本：妥协还是对峙?

在APEC经济会议上我们都看到了，中国和日本人的一次会面，那么中国与日本：妥协还是对峙呢?请看下面的双语新闻。

When Xi Jinping visited Japan in 2009 as Chinese vice-president, he asked on short notice to meet Japanese Emperor Akihito. In a rare move rlecting his importance as the future Chinese leader and a desire to capitalise on warming ties, Tokyo broke protocol and granted an audience, despite an imperial household rule requiring requests to be made one month in advance.2009年，当习近平作为中国国家副主席访问日本时，几乎在最后一刻，他才提出会晤日本明仁天皇(Emperor Akihito)的请求。尽管根据日本宫内厅(Imperial Household Agency)的规定，此类会晤请求应提前一个月作出，日本政府还是打破惯例批准了这一会晤。这一罕见举动一方面反映了习近平作为中国未来领导人的重要性，另一方面则表明日本政府希望从中日关系的好转中获益。

Five years on, relations between the two countries are so poor that Japanese diplomats are still desperately trying to secure a first meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Mr Xi when Beijing hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next week. With strong, nationalistic leaders running both countries, the Asian powers are at loggerheads over many issues – most dangerously over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.五年过去了，中日关系又降至冰点。日本外交官仍然在绝望地争取在下周的北京主办亚太经合组织(APEC)领导人峰会期间，让日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)和习近平举行首次会晤。在两位强势的民族主义色彩领导人的领导下，中日两个亚洲强国在许多问题上争论不休。其中最危险的是围绕东中国海上有争议的尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands，中国称钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿)的争端。

Signs are emerging that a meeting might happen, including a recent toning down of anti-Japan rhetoric in China. Some experts say Mr Xi does not want to tarnish Apec – the marquee international event in China this year – by rusing to meet Mr Abe.Pessimists warn the meeting might add up to little more than a courtesy handshake.不过有迹象表明，双方有可能会举行会晤。比如，中国的反日言论近期有所缓和。部分专家表示，习近平不想因为拒绝会晤安倍晋三而令今年的APEC峰会蒙上阴影，毕竟这是中国今年举办的一次国际盛事。而持悲观态度的人士则警告说，双方的会晤可能不会比礼节性的握手多多少内容。

But others hope the leaders can look beyond their deep-seated pisions after two tense years in whichJapan has boosted military spending and enhanced alliances with India and Australia to counter the rise of China.不过，其他人则希望，在经历了两年的紧张关系之后，两国领导人的眼光能够超越双方的深层次分歧。在这两年中，日本加大了军事开支，并加强了与印度和澳大利亚的同盟关系，以对抗中国的崛起。

“The Chinese are making a strategic mistake by isolating themselves,” says Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat who knows Mr Abe well. “We are transforming. We are more inclined to collective and multilateral alliance networks than bore. We believe the US-Japan alliance is not enough.”熟悉安倍晋三的前外交官宫家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)表示：“中国人正在犯下孤立自己的战略错误。而我们却在改变。我们比过去更倾向于建立集体的、多边的同盟网络。我们相信，仅仅发展日美同盟是不够的。”

China has been engaged in a campaign to paint Mr Abe as a revisionist who wants to deny Japan’s military past. Meanwhile, Mr Abe has been visiting countries in southeast Asia and offering help as they tackle their own maritime disputes with China. The US worries about the potential for conflict that could drag it into dispute with China.中国一直在开展宣传攻势，将安倍晋三描绘为想要否认日本军国主义历史的修正主义者。与此同时，安倍晋三却一直在访问东南亚国家，在它们应对自身与中国的海上争端之际，为它们提供帮助。至于美国，担心的则是中日发生冲突的可能性，因为这可能会令美国卷入与中国的争端。

Yoichi Funabashi, former editor-in-chi of Japan’s Asahi newspaper, says Asia is witnessing a “tectonic shift” similar in nature to when Japan deated China in the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95. That victory, and another over Russia 10 years later, set Japan on course for a century of dominance in Asia. But China, powered by three decades of unparalleled growth, is regaining its footing and returning to the position that it traditionally held in the region.曾任日本《朝日新闻》(Asahi)主编的船桥洋一(Yoichi Funabashi)表示，亚洲正在经历一场“板块运动”。在性质上，它与1894年到1895年期间日本在中日战争中打败中国时发生的巨变类似。那次战争的胜利以及10年后日本在日俄战争中的胜利，将日本送入了主导亚洲的世纪。然而，中国在经历30年无与伦比的飞速增长之后，正再一次站稳脚跟，并重返在亚洲的传统地位。

“It is so difficult for Japan to adjust to this new power shift, psychologically and politically,” says Mr Funabashi. “Japan has never believed in ‘Japan as number one’, but it has believed in ‘Japan as number one in Asia’?.?.?.?this is a crude awakening for Japan.”船桥洋一表示：“无论是心理上还是政治上，日本都很难适应这一新的力量转移。日本从未相信‘日本全球第一’，却一直相信‘日本亚洲第一’……对日本来说，现在是一种痛苦的觉醒过程。”

For roughly two years, communication between the governments has been minimal, preventing the countries from tackling a host of important issues from security to trade. Anti-Japan protests in China in 2012 sparked a big decline in Japanese foreign investment in China which has fallen 33 per cent this year.在过去两年里，中日两国政府间的对话一直处于极低水平。这种状况令两国无法应对从安全到贸易的一系列重要问题。2012年，中国的反日抗议活动导致日本对华投资大幅减少。今年，日本对华投资减少了33%。

Yukio Okamoto, a foreign policy expert who advised Junichiro Koizumi, the former Japanese prime minister who enraged China by frequently visiting the controversial Yasukuni shrine, says Sino-Japanese ties are “the worst since normalisation in 1972”.曾任日本前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)辅佐官的冈本行夫(Yukio Okamoto)表示，日中关系正处于“1972年邦交正常化以来的最低点”。当初，小泉纯一郎就曾因为频繁参拜有争议的靖国神社(Yasukuni Shrine)而激怒中国。

Xi Jinping: Domestic pressures mean he has little leeway to change stance习近平：国内压力使他几无转变立场的余地

In a speech in September marking the 69th anniversary of the end of the second world war, Chinese President Xi Jinpingrailed against “militarist” Japanese people who denied wartime atrocities and “beautified invasion and colonialism”,writes Jamil Anderlini in Beijing .今年9月，在纪念“二战”结束69周年的讲话中，中国国家主席习近平严厉谴责了日本国内具有“军国主义”思想的人士，称他们否认战时罪行，“美化侵略战争与殖民统治”。

“Chinese people have hearts that are bigger than the oceans or the sky but we dinitely cannot tolerate sand in our eyes,” Mr Xi said.“中国人民有比海洋天空更为宽广的胸怀，但我们的眼睛里也决容不下沙子，”习近平说。

A couple of weeks later, just in case anyone had missed the message, the president exhorted the Chinese military to prepare itself to “fight and win a regional war”.几周之后，就好像是为了防止有人没听明白这句话，习近平告诫中国军队做好“打赢一场地区性战争”的准备。

Since he took over as paramount leader in late 2012, Mr Xi has made unabashed nationalism and animosity toward Japan central tenets of his foreign policy. While former Chinese premier Wen Jiabao posed for pictures playing baseball with his Japanese counterpart, Mr Xi has tried his best to never be seen in the same room as Mr Abe.自2012年末成为中国最高领导人以来，习近平不加掩饰的民族主义倾向和对日本的敌意，主导了他外交政策。中国前总理温家宝曾与日本首相一起打棒球并留影，而习近平总是尽量避免与安倍晋三同时出现在一个房间里。

Chinese leaders govern partly through slogans and the president explicitly dines his “China Dream” theory as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, meant to erase the humiliation inflicted by former imperialist invaders like Japan.中国领导人常常利用口号作为执政工具，习近平明确地把其“中国梦”理论定义为“中华民族的伟大复兴”——意思是洗雪日本等前帝国主义侵略者给中国带来的耻辱。

“Under Xi’s leadership China has become much tougher in the way it deals with Japan, particularly when it comes to maritime [territorial] disputes,” says Feng Wei, a history professor at Fudan University in Shanghai.中日两国2014年军事预算(数据：IMF)“在习近平的领导下，中国在与日本打交道时比以前强硬得多，在涉及到海上(领土)纠纷时尤为如此，”复旦大学历史系教授冯玮说。

At first glance, this hostility appears to be personal. Mr Xi is a “princeling” whose father was a prominent Communist commander in the “Chinese people’s war of resistance against Japanese aggression” (as the second world war is known in China). He grew up surrounded by the battle-hardened Communist elite and their children who were indoctrinated with a hatred of the “dwarf pirate” invaders who conquered most of China in the 1930s and 1940s.乍一看，这种敌意似乎有个人原因。习近平是“太子党”的一员。他父亲是“中国人民反抗日本侵略的战争”(“二战”在中国的说法)中的一名杰出的中共指挥官。在习近平的成长过程中，周围尽是些身经百战的中共精英及其子女，这些干部子弟被灌输了对“倭寇”侵略者的仇恨。上世纪三、四十年代，日本侵略者曾占领中国的大部分国土。

Chinese policy makers and diplomats complain that Mr Xi rarely consults other leaders or party elders on foreign affairs, including the stance on Japan.中国政策制定者和外交官抱怨称，习近平在包括对日立场等外交事务上，很少与其他领导人或党内元老商量。

But the evidence on his personal attitudes is contradictory. Bore he was elevated to the top job, he was renowned in Japanese diplomatic circles for his deep understanding of Japan. He has visited the country on at least four official trips, most recently in 2009.但有关反日是他个人态度的证据，又有些前后矛盾。在当上中国最高领导人之前，习近平在日本外交官圈子中以对日本有深刻理解而闻名。他对日本进行了至少4次官方访问，最近一次是在2009年。

“Initially many Japanese officials and diplomats were very pleased that Xi was going to be top leader – many of them had a very good experience working with him,” says one Japanese diplomat. “Many believe Xi’s current antagonism to Japan is a nationalistic performance for a domestic Chinese audience.”“听说习近平将成为中国最高领导人之后，一开始许多日本官员和外交官都非常高兴，他们中许多人都有过跟习近平合作的愉快经历，”一名日本外交官说。“许多人认为，习近平目前对日本的敌意是给中国国内民众看的一场民族主义表演。”

The president began his tenure in the midst of huge government-sanctioned anti-Japanese protests over the territorial dispute in the East China Sea.习近平上任之时，由于东中国海(East China Sea)领土纠纷，中国国内爆发了声势浩大的反日示威活动，这些活动得到了政府认可。

Chinese political analysts say he has used the issue as a political tool to consolidate his own power. In the last two years, China has unveiled dozens of war memorials, announced new holidays to mark important anti-Japanese battles and flooded cinemas and television with violent anti-Japanese war dramas.中国政治分析人士表示，习近平把日本问题当作了巩固自身权力的一个政治工具。过去两年里，中国建成了许多战争纪念碑，宣布了纪念抗战重要战役的新节日，并上映了大量充满暴力的抗日战争题材影视作品。

More dangerous moves include sending regular naval and paramilitary patrols to contested waters around uninhabited islands in the East China Sea and unilaterally declaring an air dence zone in the same area.更危险的动作包括，定期向东中国海一些无人居住岛屿周围的争议海域派出海军和准军事巡逻队，以及单方面宣布在该地区设立防空识别区。

Mr Xi has laid out a far more assertive foreign policy that some analysts have interpreted as an attempt to exclude the US from East Asia and relegate Tokyo to minor power status.习近平已清晰地展现出一种比以往强硬得多的外交政策。有些分析人士对此的解读是，中国正力争把美国势力从东亚排挤出去，并让日本变成一个次要大国。

“China hasn’t thought out a concrete policy of forcing other countries to submit to it but the leadership certainly feels China should be recognised as number one in Asia,” says Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University. “In practical terms that means China has to show it is more powerful than Japan and it also needs Washington to recognise its supremacy in the region.”“中国还没想出迫使其他国家服从自己的具体政策，但领导层肯定觉得，中国应当是公认的亚洲头号国家，”中国人民大学美国研究中心主任时殷弘说，“在实践层面，这意味着中国不得不对外显示，中国比日本更强大，中国也需要美国承认其在亚洲的支配地位。”

While Mr Xi’s administration has stoked anti-Japanese sentiment as a way to build nationalism there is also an element of appeasement.尽管习近平政府已推高了国内反日情绪以弘扬民族主义，但其中也有安抚国内民众的用意。

In the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre China introduced a“patriotic education” curriculum that emphasised the “100 years of humiliation” suffered at the hands of foreign invaders, particularly focused on Japan.1989年天安门大屠杀之后，中国学校里引入“爱国主义教育”课程，着重描述中国被外来的、尤其是日本侵略者蹂躏的“屈辱的100年”。

Today, as most countries in the region nervously eye growing Chinese assertiveness and strident territorial claims, domestic propaganda portrays Beijing as responding in solidarity with the rest of Asia to a Japan that is reviving its militarist past. As a result, particularly among younger Chinese, voicing pro-Japanese sentiment is often perceived in the same way virulently racist or anti-Semitic views would be viewed in western countries. In this context, even Japanese officials acknowledge Mr Xi has very little leeway to improve ties.正当亚洲多数国家紧张地看着中国变得日益自信、在领土上日益强硬时，中国国内的宣传口径则是，中国与亚洲其他国家团结一致，正在应对军国主义思想死灰复燃的日本。结果是，一旦有人发表亲日言论，往往会遭到恶毒攻击——尤其是在中国年轻人当中——就如在西方国家发表种族主义或反犹太言论一样。在此背景下，就连日本官员都承认，习近平基本上没有改善两国关系的空间。

“His administration is quite stable and he has set himself up as a kind of emperor but he can’t just do whatever he likes and there are some areas where he has no room for manoeuvre,” says the Japanese diplomat. “Japan is one of those areas – if he was soft on Japan it could destabilise his administration.”“习近平领导的政府相当稳定，他已把自己塑造成一位帝王般的领导人，但他也不能随心所欲，他在某些领域也没有回旋余地，”前述日本外交官说，“日本问题就是这样的领域之一——如果他对日本软弱，就很可能削弱其政府的稳定性。”

Shinzo Abe: Inflexibility on key issues threatens fort to boost relations安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)：在关键问题上的固执恐危及他改善关系的努力

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, sent his national security adviser to China on Thursday as Tokyo’s forts to reset relations between the two most important nations in Asia gathered pace, writes Demetri Sevastopulo in Tokyo .日本首相安倍晋三周四派出其国家安全顾问访华，加大了改善亚洲最重要的两国间关系的努力。

Dispatching Shotaro Yachi, a veteran diplomat who helped engineer Mr Abe’s landmark trip to China as prime ministerin 2006, is part of an fort to secure a meeting with President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit.派出谷内正太郎(Shotaro Yachi)，是安倍确保自己能在亚太经合组织(APEC)会议期间与中国国家主席习近平会晤的举措之一。谷内是一位资深外交官，曾在2006年促成了具有里程碑意义的安倍以首相身份访华之旅。

Experts say even a public handshake would thaw relations, and send a message to officials on both sides that they can resume discussions about crucial issues from diplomacy to trade.专家们表示，哪怕两国领导人只是公开握个手，也能使两国关系解冻，并向双方官员传达一个讯息：他们可以着手重启从外交关系到贸易等各种关键问题的讨论。

Some in Japan argue there is no time to lose. “It is very important for Xi Jinping and Mr Abe to meet because of the vector pointing towards deterioration next year,” says Yukio Okamoto, a former Japanese diplomat. “China is looking to mount a campaign focusing on?.?.?.?the 70th anniversary of the victory over Japanese imperialism.”一些日本人士认为，改善两国关系已迫在眉睫。“习近平和安倍的会晤非常重要，因为两国关系明年还将恶化，”日本前外交官冈本行夫(Yukio Okamoto)表示，“明年，中国很可能将围绕战胜日本帝国主义70周年发起一场运动。”

When Mr Abe began his second stint as prime minister in 2012, experts were worried about a possible confrontation between the Asian powers over the disputed Senkaku Islands – which China calls the Diaoyu. Months earlier, violent anti-Japan protests had broken out in China over Tokyo’s decision to buy some of the islands from their private owner. The dispute lt diplomatic relations in cold storage and ruled out any meeting with the Chinese leader.当安倍在2012年开始第二个任期时，专家曾担心，中日间可能因为有领土争议的尖阁诸岛发生冲突。在那之前数月，由于日本政府决定从尖阁诸岛的私人所有者那里购买其中一些小岛，中国国内爆发了暴力反日抗议。这场争端令两国外交关系跌至冰点，也断绝了中日领导人会晤的一切可能性。

The mood could not have been more different from 2006 when Mr Abe as a newly minted nationalist prime minister impressed his critics by making big forts to mend ties with China. People close to him say he would have liked to pick up relations with Beijing where he had lt off, but that China’s behaviour over the Senkaku made that impossible.当时的气氛与2006年时迥然不同。2006年，民族主义倾向的安倍首次出任首相，他做出了巨大的努力来修补与中国之间的关系，给批评他的人留下了深刻印象。与安倍亲近的人表示，安倍本想在最新任内重拾与北京的关系，但中方在尖阁诸岛问题上的反应使他不可能这样做。

Japan had dended the purchase of the islands, saying it was to prevent Shintaro Ishihara, the rightwing, anti-China Tokyo governor, from changing the status quo by buying them and erecting buildings. But Beijing lambasted Japan and started sending ships to the Senkaku, where they increasingly began to enter Japanese territorial waters.日方坚称，东京方面购买岛屿，是为了防止右翼的东京都知事石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)出手购岛并在岛上修建建筑从而改变岛屿现状。但北京方面激烈抨击日方，并开始向尖阁诸岛派遣船只，这些船只开始越来越多地进入日本领海。

In a thinly veiled speech to Asian and US dence officials in Singapore in May, Mr Abe criticised China by saying that countries should “not use force or coercion” to press their territorial claims. He also hinted to southeast Asian nations that Japan would help face down bullies.5月，安倍在新加坡面对亚洲和美国的防务官员，发表了一篇几乎不加掩饰的讲话，对中国作出批评。他说，国家“不应使用武力或者胁迫方式”来推行自己的领土主张。他还对东南亚国家暗示，日本可以帮它们抵御大国欺凌。

Officials in Beijing, however, saw Mr Abe as a revisionist leader who had enraged China in December 2013 by visiting the Yasukuni shrine, a memorial to Japan’s 2.4m war dead that remains controversial because it includes the “souls” of 14 convicted Class A war criminals.然而，在北京官员的眼中，安倍偏离了日本传统外交路线。安倍在2013年12月参拜靖国神社(Yasukuni shrine)，激怒了中国。靖国神社中供奉着日本240万名战争死难者，其中包括14名甲级战犯的“亡灵”，一直备受争议。

In 2006 Mr Abe maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” that allowed China and Japan to paper over differences – particularly over Yasukuni – by not rerring to them.在2006年时，安倍采用了一种“含混战术”，通过闭口不谈两国间争议，尤其是靖国神社，来掩饰两国分歧。

In the months bore his December 2013 shrine visit, relations with China had begun to thaw and Chinese officials once again opened talks with Japanese counterparts. But Mr Abe’s Yasukuni trip slammed the door on any rapprochement. The Obama administration, which mainly welcomes the presence of a strong Japanese leader, was livid because it felt Mr Abe was jeopardising forts to ensure that the US and Japan – helped by South Korea – could counter China. Abe confidants say he felt he had sacrificed his desire to visit Yasukuni as leader in 2006, and that he was unwilling to do so again because China itself was raising tensions in the Senkaku.在他2013年底参拜靖国神社前，中日关系其实已经开始解冻，两国官员又一次开始对话。但安倍的参拜彻底关上了和解的大门。通常乐见强势的日本领导人的奥巴马(Obama)政府对此非常恼火，认为安倍破坏了日美(在韩国帮助下)对抗中国的努力。与安倍关系密切的人士透露，安倍认为，自己在2006年时牺牲了作为领导人参拜靖国神社的渴望，而如今中国在尖阁诸岛挑起紧张局势，他不愿再牺牲一次。

His visit was celebrated by Japanese nationalists, but critics felt he should once againhave set aside his own desire for the sake of Japan’s national interest. Mr Okamoto says that while Yasukuni is not a war shrine, Mr Abe should have foregone the visit for “tactical reasons”.安倍的参拜受到了日本民族主义者的热捧，但批评者认为，安倍应该再一次为了日本的国家利益把个人愿望放在一边。冈本行夫表示，尽管靖国神社不是一个战争神社，安倍也应该为了“战术上的原因”放弃参拜。

Yoichi Funabashi, former editor of the Asahi newspaper, says the decision was “mind-boggling”, since Mr Abe had been applauded for mending ties with China back in 2006, and because he already has “impeccable credentials with the conservatives”.《朝日新闻》前主编船桥洋一表示，安倍的决定“难以理解”，因为他在2006年修复中日关系的努力受到了赞誉，而且他已经“在保守主义人士中树立了完美形象”。

But Yasukuni was not the only incident to sour relations. Earlier in 2013, Mr Abe had posed in the cockpit of a fighter jet with the number “731” painted on it. China thought it was a move to rub salt in war wounds, as the number was the name of an infamous Japanese army group that performed biological and chemical experiments on Chinese people. Japanese experts say it was just a bungled photo opportunity, but it raised the spectre of Mr Abe’s sympathy for historical revisionists.中日两国间外商直接投资(数据：Heaver Analytics)不过，参拜靖国神社并不是让中日关系恶化的唯一事件。2013年早些时候，安倍曾在一架标有数字“731”的战斗机驾驶舱中摆拍照片。中国认为，这是一种在伤口上撒盐的举动，因为“731”曾是日本一支臭名昭著的军团的番号，这支部队曾在中国人身上做生化试验。日方专家称，这只是拍照时机选取地过于糟糕，但这一事件仍然让外界担心，安倍对历史修正主义者充满同情。

China has attached two conditions to any meeting between the leaders – that Japan concede there is a dispute over the Senkaku and that Mr Abe assure Beijing he will not visit Yasukuni this year – but Tokyo has hinted that they go too far.中方为双方领导人间的会晤开出了两个条件：日本必须承认在尖阁诸岛问题上存在争议;安倍必须向中国政府保证今年不会参拜靖国神社。不过，日本政府曾暗示，这些条件超出了日本政府的承受能力。

Yasuhiro Matsuda, a China expert at Tokyo University, says both sides need to find a solution by returning to the agreements of the past, since it will be very hard to reach a new agreement in the current climate.东京大学(Tokyo University)中国专家松田康博(Yasuhiro Matsuda)表示，两国在当前气氛下达成新的协议非常困难，因此，双方应当回到过去的协议，从中寻找方案。

A person familiar with Mr Abe’s thinking says Japan is trying to engineer a situation that allows both sides to maintain their stance on the Senkaku. China has changed the status quo by sending ships to the area, but Japan has rused to accept there is a dispute and so will not negotiate over the island’s future.一名熟悉安倍想法的知情人士表示，日本正试图构建一种局面，让双方都维持自身对尖阁诸岛的立场。现在，中国向该海域派遣海监船，已经改变了这一地区的现状。然而，日本始终拒绝承认该岛存在争议，因此也不会就该岛未来开展谈判。

“The Chinese can now say our mission is complete and the Japanese can say we have given nothing away,” the person says about such an arrangement. “Both sides can say what they want?.?.?.?which is a curious equilibrium.”对于日本试图构建的那种局面，这位知情人士表示：“如果能够实现那种局面，中国人就可以宣称我们完成了任务，而日本人则可以宣称我们并未放弃任何东西。双方都能宣示自己的诉求……这是一种十分奇特的均衡局面。”